Owatonna, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

518
FXUS63 KMPX 131026
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
526 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke returns for portions of central and eastern
  Minnesota and western Wisconsin today.

- A more active pattern is expected from early tomorrow through
  the weekend with multiple chances for heavy rain and
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

It`s a calm, clear, and cool morning across the region with
high pressure in place. Fog is more prevalent across northern
Minnesota early this morning, but surface obs indicate some very
patchy fog is trying to develop further south across central
and western Minnesota. Any fog that does develop will mix out
quickly this morning. The only other sensible weather impact
expected today is another short-lived round of wildfire smoke.
Models indicate a narrow band of smoke along a weak surface
front will drift southward through late morning and make it as
far south as the Twin Cities before dissipating by this evening.
Otherwise, mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 80s and
comfortable dew points are on tap for today.

By this evening, showers and thunderstorms are expected to be
ongoing across central South Dakota. While this complex is not
expected to make it across the SD/MN border, additional
convection out ahead of it is possible as the LLJ ramps up.
These scattered showers and thunderstorms across western
Minnesota early Thursday diminish by late morning. Southerly
flow kicks as the warm front lifts into northern Minnesota, with
Tds quickly climbing back into the upper 60s/low 70s by the
afternoon. A surface front will sweep across the Dakotas with
the parent low well up into Canada into the evening. This will
lead to the development of thunderstorms in far northwestern
Minnesota along the front and another round of overnight showers
and storms is expected to move across the state through early
Friday morning.

The active pattern continues as multiple shortwaves traverse the
region with no shortage of moisture. Pwats approach the 2" mark
Friday through the weekend as a stalled frontal boundary sets the
stage for multiple rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain. The
exact location of where the heaviest rain may set up is still
unknown and will likely be hard to pin down until 24-36 hours out.
Overall, QPF totals look to be highest across south central
Minnesota and western Wisconsin, particularly for the second
half of the weekend into early next week. Two/three day QPF
totals may approach 3"+, with locally higher amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Early morning fog across western MN will burn off quickly after
dawn. A band of smoke will sink south from central MN and
northwest WI this morning and could bring MVFR vis to STC and
RNH, with 6SM at MSP and EAU. The smoke will lift north and
dissipate this evening. Scattered showers and storms will build
east into western MN overnight, so included a prob30 for AXN,
RWF, and MKT.

KMSP...Smoke with modest visibility reductions is expected to
arrive midday. Otherwise, light winds and clear skies expected
today.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Borghoff